连续剧《血色迷雾》，柳云龙自导自演自唱，环环相扣。《暗算》之后，又一勾心斗角的剧作。
我的评价：非常BT。
创作者显露出饱满的自信，
所有由kylin发布的文章
“声誉卫士”的声誉怎么了？
Reputation Defender （声誉卫士）是一家2年前创办于美国的保护个人网上”声誉”的公司，简单说，这家公司所提供的服务主要是为客户把搜索引擎结果页（SERPs）上的负面信息”处理”掉。
不过，在Google上搜索”声誉卫士”（简称RD）的话，你可以发现，最上面是他们自己打的关键词广告，第一个和第二个搜索结果是公司网站，接下来就是关于RD的两条负面报道（见下图）。自称最为专业和有效的”网络声誉”保护专家，为什么连自己公司的声誉也保护不了呢？
RD 属于”黑带”级别的”网络声誉”专家，可以把SERP上的负面结果非常迅速地进行”压制”甚至彻底”抹掉”，比如下面这个截屏是我以前收录的，同样的位置 上也是一条负面报道，让人惊奇的是，收录截屏后过了几天（具体天数忘记了）再去看，这条负面报道居然消失了，后面几页SERP上也没有发现。
不能不承认，RD的确非常”黑带”，技术的确高明，但是为什么自己公司的SERP上反复出现不利于自己的、几乎是自己打自己耳光的负面信息呢？
道 理很简单，RD在工作过程中，使用了一些有违商业伦理或职业道德、有损客户利益的技术，做过这些事情的话，不管你的”网络声誉管理”技术怎样高明，不管你 花了多少钱去打理SERP上的”疤痕”，恐怕都无济于事。这已经是一再被证明，而且一定会在将来反复被证明的一个道理，企业即便不从商业道德角度考虑，单 从自身利益出发，也应该知道这个道理。
当然，从”网络声誉管理”（Online Reputation Management, ORM）这一领域来说，存在很多处于黑与白之间的灰色地带，业者和客户怎样妥当把握、在不踩踏底线的情况下谋求自己合情合理的利益，是一个比较复杂的话题，改天抽时间再聊。
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Twitter营销和营销2.0的效果测量
看到一篇有趣的帖子，讲怎样利用Twitter来进行社区营销（英文）。
方法很简单，作者用药品公司Pfizer和抗抑郁药Sinequan作为例子，步骤如下：
- 首先在Twitter上建立一个帐号：http://twitter.com/sinequan
- 然后通过Twitter搜索工具Terraminds，利用”抑郁”、”郁闷”、”情绪低落”等关键词来搜寻可能的抑郁症患者
- 通过自己的帐号把他们加入自己的”关注”名单
- 在Twitter上不断地提供有关抑郁症以及抗抑郁方面的信息和知识，来帮助这些可能的抑郁症患者
这个社区营销的方法可以举一反三，应用到很多其他的社会化媒体上。
看 了这个帖，我又想到营销2.0中一个很棘手的问题 – 怎样衡量营销效果？通过Twitter的社区营销，到底能有多少准客户因此对Pfizer及其药品Sinequan有所了解，又有多少会进一步咨询，甚而 产生购买的欲望？更笼统一些的话，Pfizer的企业形象，是否会因此而得到提升？恐怕这些问题是很难作答的，因为社会化媒体和新营销的特点，这些营销的 效果还很难准确测量出来。
这方面一个显著的例子就是企业博客。很多企业内外的营销者无不对企业博客的好处了如指掌，但是就是无法在企业内启动这个项目。很重要的一个原因是，他们无法用量化的指标来说明或测量企业博客给企业所能带来的益处。
在 某些方面来看，这有点儿不公平。大品牌的营销，比方讲电视广告，虽然也有事前和事后的测量，来衡量电视广告在品牌知名度、品牌形象等方面所产生的效果，但 是大家都明白，品牌的建立有一个持续的累计效应存在，并非一两次营销活动就能产生很大的效果，电视广告的事先事后测量，与其说是给电视广告的投入进行分 析，不如说是广告公司的一个例行手续，电视广告是否投入，并不需要ROI分析来支持。当然，电视广告的效果有可以量化的指标来看到。推而广之，很多的传统 营销也存在这样的一个累计效应，而无法以一两次的效果来评定。
回过头来看上述Twitter社区营销这个例子。社区成员数量的增加，必然是一个长期积累的过程，其影响的面和程度，不论从个人还是从社区看，也必然是一个逐步增加和强化的过程。这样的情况，可能很难用量化的指标，在比较短的时间范围里来测量。
看不清楚的情况下，需要用信念来引导。可惜这不是大部分企业，尤其是官僚型大企业的做法。
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作者:Sun Zhifeng 日期:Friday, October 5th, 2007
海外插件开发者使用OpenSocial平台为中国社交网络开发应用程序
谷歌研究人员警告称社交网络威胁用户隐私
谷歌警告称社交网络威胁用户隐私
导语：readwriteweb.com网站今天载文称，谷歌研究人员警告说，社交网络的发展以及越来越多使用社交网络会威胁用户的隐私，并提出了一些建议。以下为全文：
谷歌研究人员日前在一份报告中称，社交网络的扩展以及用户越来越多地利用社交网络，威胁到了用户的隐私，同时造成了这样一种假象：用户自己暴露了自己的隐私。
报告称，社交网络在3个方面影响用户的隐私：
1、无法控制活动流
报告称，无法控制活动流在两个方面威胁用户隐私：无法控制活动流中的事件；无法控制哪些用户能查看活动流。
2、讨厌的链接
披露用户不愿意披露信息的链接就是所谓”讨厌的链接”。
3、通过综合社交图揭示用户身份
社交网站会记录用户相当数量的身份信息，通过比较多个社交网站上的数据，就可以揭示用户的身份。研究人员已经利用了该方法识别Netflix用户。
谷歌研究人员也提出了一些解决方案：
·应用软件应当清楚哪些用户活动会被自动加到活动流中。
·用户应当能够控制哪些事件会加入活动流，并能够从活动流中删除事件。
·用户应当被明确告知他们活动流的受众，并能够控制活动流的受众。
·软件开发人员在开发应用软件时，应当使活动流事件的生成符合用户预期。
报告还建议厂商开发相关工具，让用户了解互联网上有关自己的信息；开发警告系统，让用户了解自己的隐私是否会受到威胁。(清泉)
IBM报告称通信产业应拥抱社交网络
IBM报告称通信产业应拥抱社交网络
新浪科技讯 北京时间1月28日晚间消息，据国外媒体报道，IBM周三发表题为”蜕变中的通信产业”(The Changing Face of Communications)的报告指出，通信服务供应商需要利用社交网络保护并加强在通信产业中的作用。
社交网络兴起
该报告警告称，作为迅速发展的文化现象，社交网络正重新定义通信产业，那些不采取大胆措施利用社交网络的通信服务供应商将面临营收和市场份额减少的危险。
社交网络正快速发展为全球个人及企业网络用户管理并丰富数字生活方式的首选目的地。去年6月份，社交网站月独立用户数约占全球网民的三分之二。该报告指出，基于全球网民的增长速度，IBM预计，2012年全球社交网站月独立访问用户数将超过8亿。
该报告还表示，最近几年被看作”社交风尚”的社交网络，正在超越目前的阶段，发展成为互联网的内在组成部分。遍布全球的网民都在使用Facebook和MySpace等网站，满足自身的交流需求。例如，在2005年以前，还没有任何一家社交网站可以跻身于全球前20大英文网站中。但截至2008年6月，社交网站却在前20大英文网站中占据了近一半，超过了AOL、eBay和亚马逊等许多老牌知名网站。
该报告称，社交网站不但成为主要的交流平台，同时也日益成为数字内容的分销渠道。根据品牌和目标为客户建立社交网站，可以吸引更为精准的目标受众，并可积极地鼓励并允许他们在网络社区中交换信息。
3G Americas总裁克里斯·皮尔森(Chris Pearson)表示：”成功的通信系统，不只是为个人、组织及社区提供基本的连接，而是以原来不可能的方式提供互动和沟通。”他认为：”随着互联网的普及以及互动的网络交流工具的出现，具有百年历史的通信产业正在被这些新现象所重新定义，全球范围内个人及商业生活中的交流方式也在发生变化。”
随需应变
IBM的报告指出，社交网络的兴起正在撼动电信行业的基础，并将创造由以下两个关键趋势所构建的未来：
- 通信模式从原来的点对点或者双向交流向多对多、协作通信、共享视频和照片及其他丰富用户体验的多媒体内容转变；
- 通信控制权正在从封闭的电信供应商向开放的互联网平台服务供应商转移。
上述两种趋势将使Skype、谷歌、微软、Facebook和MySpace等新进入者步入通信市场，抢占传统通信供应商的地位并占据增量通信时间的大部分份额。这些新进入者不但拥有以互联网为基础的破坏性商业模式，并且为社交网络和协作提供了电子邮件、即时信息等多种通信工具和应用程序。
IBM通信部门总经理杰瑞·科恩(Gary Cohen)表示：”通信模式的变化及发展趋势正在构建新的生态系统，多数通信供应商很难承担无所作为的代价，他们需要采取大胆、积极的措施。”科恩认为：”通过采用社交网络等新手段，通信服务供应商可以发展新型的通信方式并激发互动，为所有的商业提供协作与创新，进而提高效率、降低成本、增加性能。”
不断发展的通信市场为电信供应商提供了机遇和挑战。长期而言，通信服务供应商应该拓宽传统的”语音”业务范围，更为积极地提供点对点通信以及包括”语音、基于互联网的通信以及内容”的多对多协作模式，并据此重新安排组织架构和行业内的合作伙伴，这将具备战略和转型的双重意义，并将对通信服务供应商提供的产品和服务、技能、平台、营收模式以及市场等产生不可忽视的影响。(肖恩)
相关报道：
Gmail Offline 、Googe Site
Gmail、GoogleDocs，如果开启Google gears，则各个浏览器各自进行离线的内容同步。
为避免同一机多个浏览器多重备份的问题，Google在开启offline时，”替用户”优选Chrome作为快捷Application方式。
注意：”替用户”是加引号的，这是有趣的隐私、竞争和博弈问题。
按照” Offline “的设置文字：
| Learn more |
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Google 也许有个努力方向：在同一台电脑上的Offline数据，对所有浏览器的离线数据请求只保留一份副本。而包括Safari、Firefox、IE8等在内，均有采用如Sqlite这样的轻型嵌入式数据库方案。这意味着，GoogleGears或许会成为更多能的客户端中间件软件。
这个前景，不禁令人将Google Offline和Google协同APP套件联系起来。未来的图景清晰地似乎”可怕”。
贩卖流量的生意
贩卖流量的生意
1、全球最靠谱的第三方咨询公司Nielsen，跟中国最不靠谱的那头猪合伙搞了家CR-Nielsen。洋和尚到了中国成花和尚，前几天发布了个不靠谱的数据：《2008年度中国互联网广告市场总结》。
数据指出（见上图）：互联网行业有9家企业进入TOP50广告主排名，分别为世纪佳缘、中华英才网、智联招聘、完美时空、VANCL、阿里巴巴、巨人网络、易趣、妆点网，广告投放金额分别为4.8亿元、3.0亿元、2.7亿元、1.1亿元、1亿元、9100万元、8200万元、7300万元、6400万元。
2、于是，麦田同学盯上了数据中一个有趣的点：妆点网08年的广告费是6400万，并转载了褚明理的文章《化妆品行业的PPG——妆点网》。曾专门到南昌拜访过妆点网的黄志光同学，也随之写了一篇总结性导读《说说妆点网》。其实，半年多前在paidai上有人投诉妆点网的某个子站是骗子，何田同学回复说妆点网是”航空母舰+飞机“。
3、在我看来，U88.cn的模式、橡果的模式、PPG的模式、妆点的模式，乃至Keso这位在google上买了几十万个关键词的朋友的生意模式，其实都是贩卖流量的生意，只是贩卖的方式不同或者流量来了之后的处理手段不同。让我们这个看看这些生意：
4、U88类：
03年底04年初，U88这种模式就已经开始，那个时候我们的想法其实很简单：门户网站上的广告效应很大但费用很贵，不少连锁加盟的项目找到广告代理公司的时候都被费用吓跑，于是生意出现了：”买一个广告链，分给几个连锁项目”。
然后，N多家广告公司开始用这种模式：做一个类似百万格子的网页列一堆加盟项目，去门户上买一个首页广告链把流量引过来（类似”09年十大致富项目”等，最猛的时候门户首页的文字广告链80%都是这些），然后开始卖格子，那个时候10万买下来的可以分发卖出去30万。
慢慢的，门户广告的效应不是很好了，买流量的行为从门户扩展到搜索，到电视。最后，发展到了今天U88.cn、3158.cn、288.com、78.cn、8588.com等等等等这样的模式。（最逗的U88.cn找和绅代言，3158.cn就找乾隆代言，玩的那叫一个乐。然后还被CCAV给搞了一下子）
5、橡果国际：他的命直接被卖给他流量的人革了，同时还有比橡果成本更低的或者做得更深入的人在超越他（直接自己卖）。
PPG：PPG依靠的电话订购，早期广告铺下去，大量的效果出来，广告一停继续没生意，不停的烧钱不停的周而复始在死循环里 … 太依靠电话订购，而没有真正发挥网站的作用。最后，在还没有做到不需要广告就可以自给的时候，自己内部出现了大问题。
Keso朋友的那种生意：刚开始大量买Google关键词，来了生意的同时客户资源留在网站，回头客越多广告需要的越少，慢慢的不做关键词生意也足够，没有生意就继续买关键词，周而复始的慢慢积累资源… 到有一天，基本不需要做广告，自己的品牌和客户都出来了，甚至可以做成外贸平台性的网站或者更大规模的外贸B2C。
6、所有类似这种生意最后是否真的可以成功，得看他们如何对待”贩卖流量”这个模式。
如果把这种模式当作一直的核心，流量买过来分发下去只留下钱，这个生意基本可以确定是兔子的尾巴，长不了；如果把这种模式当作生意在起步时期的必要手段，在前期买过来人和生意，逐渐在贩卖过程中沉淀人和必要资源，有戏。
7、回过来说妆点网。
妆点网其实是一个大型的U88，不同的是他把流量分给了自己的各子产品，自己消化。比较好的是，妆点网自身有资讯、社区、商城等产品，形成了一个大池塘，各子产品消化流量的同时也在囤积客户，客户不是买完东西就走了而是会继续留下来保持一定的回头率。
如何消化流量，是妆点网如何赚钱的问题；如何囤积用户，是妆点网如何发展的问题；搞定这两个问题，这个生意可能有戏。
从妆点网07年底上线到现在的一些做法来看，他们不至于是一家没有道德底线一味谋求利益的公司，还是有理想。但，摆在妆点网面前的问题依然很多：
1》 如何把池塘做好，以后不要靠买水过日子。让客户除了掏钱，还可以在干点消费过程中的事情，自然的留下来自然的消费。
2》 如何在消化流量赚钱的同时，真正给客户带来利益，而不是为了赚钱而不顾长远的影响。想做长久，这个时候一定要分清楚”眼前的商业重要还是客户重要”。
3》 如何不单纯的依靠电话销售，走向网上销售。向电子商务更深的做下去。
4》 现在这样贩卖流量，入口只有一个，分食的子产品众多，如何把流量更合理的分发给各子产品，在这个分发过程中不要堵塞。
5》 在消化流量的同时，如何更好的打通各子产品。
6》 妆点网现在的商业模式不错，但网站很烂、非常烂。可以看出这不是一个产品型的公司，如何把网站做好，非一朝一夕之功，从意识到团队都需要挺起来。不然，继续没戏。
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PS 1，曾听老屠说过一个关于谭智的传奇故事：
当年，各城市的框架广告市场竞争激烈，大家都着急拿更多的钱抢下更多的楼盘。谭智这个时候出现了，找了几十个城市中比较有潜力的竞争者，谈收购。”多少钱 卖？”，”500万”，”好，我给你600万。但要分5年给你，如果晚一年不给之前给你的钱算白送给你了，收购取消。现在你可以拿第一年的钱去抢市场了 “。然后，谭智跟急需造势的江南春说”我这里有几十个城市，要不要？”。最后，江南春收单给钱，谭智拿钱，小头分给了当初那些卖公司的人，剩下的自己装进 腰包。这，其实也是也是一种贩卖流量的生意，只是倒过来了。
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PS 2：学黄志光，留一道题：
淘宝上买茶叶最牛逼的哥们这样承诺：一个月之内无条件退货，就算你已经拆包了，喝掉了一半，照退，免费。 他告诉我这种做法，狠赚！ 而且人家现在40%左右的回头客。
为何？
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（为了保证讨论质量，继续关闭评论）
分类：其他&IT观察 ,09/01/31 2:09 AM | 33 Views |
PE退出收益龙虎榜 联想投资以30倍回报率居首位 – 投资资讯 ·ChinaVenture投�
PE退出收益龙虎榜 联想投资以30倍回报率居首位
相关行业： 投资行业 相关机构： 联想投资
2008年，世界性经济危机、大小非解禁、汇率飙升……国内IPO市场更是自9月中旬起进入真空期，这使得过去作为VC、PE退出首选的IPO之路越发狭窄。
ChinaVenture（投中集团）最新发布的《2008年创业投资及私募股权投资市场退出研究报告》（下称“研究报告”）显示，2008年共有129家中国企业在境内外资本市场进行IPO，数量环比减少46.7%，融资金额228.68亿美元，环比大幅下降78.4%。
其中，具VC或PE背景的企业IPO案例共36起，较2007年同期相比降幅达62.5%；平均融资金额为9053.92万美元，较 2007年环比下降73.5%；共有66家机构通过IPO退出，平均投资回报率（此处的回报率是指账面回报率，IPO投资回报率 =（投资机构上市前持有股票数量 * IPO发行价 － 总投资金额）/ 总投资金额﹞则为1.98倍，环比下降63.8%。
据ChinaVenture的统计，2008年中国并购市场共发生案例470起，环比下降22.3%。已披露金额案例数量360 起，涉及并购金额680.60亿美元，环比下降16.8%，平均单笔并购金额为1.89亿美元；VC、PE背景企业并购案例16起，涉及VC、PE退出机 构22家，并购退出案例金额仅5.59亿美元，并购市场的整体规模低于去年水平。
在这样的不利环境下，ChinaVenture认为，并购市场将取代IPO成为机构退出的主要战场，其中主要以借壳上市与同业转手为主。
该集团一位分析师认为，对于买方来说，从同业机构手中接受项目，可以获得其对于管理层的全面情况，并拥有大量详实的尽职调查资料，节约了时间成本。
另外，管理层回购也可能成为VC或PE退出的渠道之一。
前述研究报告认为，公司管理层可以以个人资信做担保，或以即将收购的公司资产做担保，向银行或其他金融机构借入资金，将股份买回，使机构成功退出。管理层回购通常适用于风险投资的导入期和成长期，此时投资所占股份额度不是太大，比较适合采用这种途径退出。
尽管2008年IPO市场环境恶劣，但仍有较高回报案例出现。其中以科大讯飞（002230.SZ）上市，联想投资获得超过30倍的回报率最为显著。
科大讯飞于2008年5月12日在深交所中小板上市，发行价12.66元/股，募集资金31414万元。
联想投资是科大讯飞的第二大法人股股东。科大讯飞《招股说明书》显示，公司上市前，联想投资共持有880万股份，占公司总股本的10.95%。
2001年8月，安徽正信会计师事务所审核确认联想投资投入2533万元，折合注册资本800万元，联想投资的880万股股份由此而来。
如果以注册资本出资额计算的话，联想投资的每股成本仅为0.91元。而截至1月14日收盘，科大讯飞的股价已经达26.45元，为投资成本的29.07倍。但到2011年的5月13日之后，联想投资才可以将上述股份变现。
前述研究报告显示，与联想投资相比，亚商资本和通联创投分别投资卫士通（002268.SZ）和海利得（002206.SZ）亦分别获得了13.27倍和12.86倍的退出回报率。
AliveNotDead.com (“AnD”) – TOS
使用协议（URL）
发布时间: 2007-04-10 0:03 作者: The alive not dead team 來源: alivenotdead.com
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15. for band and filmmaker profiles, uses sexually suggestive imagery or any other unfair, misleading or deceptive Content intended to draw traffic to the profile.
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